Will the depression making its way towards Cape Horn to the north of the fleet collide with the leaders? By Saturday midday, there will be 40 plus knots at the Cape, which means gusts of quite a lot more and this is not a good place to have this sort of weather.
What makes Cape Horn so dangerous? Around our planet, south of America, Africa and Australia/New Zealand lies an ocean of roughly 2,000 miles to Antarctica, known to sailors as the Roaring Forties and Southern Ocean. This is the only place where no land blocks the relentless passage eastward of a frequent depressions. In theory there is no limit to how large the waves can be but in practical terms the largest waves reach 27 to 30 metres in height, the equivalent to a ten story building. Only in one place does the huge ocean narrow, and that is at Cape Horn, where, at Drake’s Passage south of the Horn, the gap is reduced to 600 miles. So a 2,000 mile wide river has to squeeze through the gap. Adding to this, the water shallows, creating shorter and steeper waves. As if this were not enough, the Andes Mountain range in South America forces the depressions south and into this area. So, in all, it is not a place where you want to arrive with a depression.
A collision with the latest depression is going to be very close for the leaders in the Vendée and they know it. That is one of the disadvantages of modern communication, you have forecasts transmitted via satellites so you know what is coming. (I think it was less worrying in my day as one did not have any idea what might be coming, except for a dropping air pressure and signs in the clouds, so less foreboding).
The leading group is trying to hang on to the east side of the depression, making fast times with a north westerly wind and trying to stay ahead. Maître CoQ has made 404 miles in the past 24 hours, and Apivia has done 494 miles but headed a bit more to the north, which is why she still trails the leader by 104 miles. Groupe-Apicil, in 3rd place, has dropped back to 270 miles off the lead with a day’s run of 330 miles, and the overall spread between 1st and 11th has expanded to 530 miles. If this group has deliberately slowed to avoid the depression at the Horn I don’t blame them. After all, in this race, one bit of serious damage and you are out and preserving the boat becomes more important than good speeds when conditions deteriorate. It’s a question of preserving the boat and living to race another day.
Further back Pip Hare has squeezed up into 16th place and Miranda Merron holds 23rd.